United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) has released The European Forest Sector Outlook Study II (EFSOS II) which gives introspection of the consequences of the policy choices on the future forest of EU 27, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. This study intends to help policy makers make the best informed decision for the future of European forests.
Policy makers bear a huge responsibility between maintaining a balance between the conservation of biodiversity and addressing high economic and social expectations from the forests. They also have to find measure to seize and store carbon, adapt to a changing climate and the provision of opportunities for recreation and leisure, while also supplying wood for energy and raw material use. The study suggests a need for major change in policies or strategies in regard to the forest sector as consumption of forest products and wood energy is likely to grow which would direct growth in supply. Demand for wood will grow by 20 per cent with most of the growth in the wood energy sector. Slower growth rate will be witnessed in the forest products industry. The growing demand can be met only by expanding the components in supply chain especially harvest residues.
Forest area is also expected to continue to expand and increase by 6 per cent, or 12 million ha by 2030, an area slightly larger than Bulgaria. Another important aspect of forest is its potential to stock carbon from the atmosphere as itself being the largest terrestrial carbon stock. This purpose has to be fulfilled while guaranteeing wood supply. EFSOS II provides the most viable strategy to combine forest management focused on carbon accumulation in the forest (longer rotations and a greater share of thinnings) with a steady flow of wood for products and energy. In the long term, when stocking capacity limit of the forest will be reached, the task can be achieved by regular harvesting, to store the carbon in harvested wood products and to avoid emissions by substituting wood for non-renewable materials and energy sources. Study also suggests that if Europe continues to source wood for renewable energy then supply would increase by per cent in the next twenty years. This would require an unprecedented mobilisation of high volumes of all types of wood incurring significant environmental, financial and institutional costs. In addition, 30 million cu.m. of wood would need to be imported from other regions.
However, if policymakers prioritise bio diversity and set aside more land for conservation and changing forest management the supply of wood from European forest in 2030 would be around 12 per cent less than present. According to EFSOS II results, Europe will remain a net exporter of wood and forest products. Projections also show a steady rise in prices of forest products and wood over the whole period, driven by expanding global demand and increasing scarcity in other regions.
Source: http://www.unece.org |
